First Snow!

Received our first Snow of the year and it is wonderful! For a Texas boy who has never been around snow before...I feel like a kid at Christmas. Fun stuff.

MT

Aquamarine Fund Diary, Buffett, and Owning a Business

You can tell from the volatility breakout in my blog posts...that I have some time on my hands.  :)

Found some great posts by the Aquamarine Fund Diary.  Here's a post on Warren Buffett and the Chicago Graduate School of Business - trip to Omaha.  I really liked the following bullets:

• Associate with people who are better than you. Marry up, employ up,
  work for your heroes. Associations rub off. Tell me your heroes, I’ll
  tell you how you’ll turn out. People in the room (us) have IQ, energy,
  and smarts to burn. No bad results will be due to deficiencies in this
  area.
• Take one hour. Think of the one classmate who you’d like to own 10%
  of for the rest of their life. 10% of all of their future income. What
  do you think about? The person who others admire and want to work with.
  Person who works hard and gives others credit. It’s simple. Select
  those qualities for yourself.
• "Now the fun part” who would you want to short? The guy who turns other people off.

I also liked this interview of Tom Murphy in The Wisdom of Tom Murphy.  In the full interview Murphy  encourages

"people, particularly those who are young but also experienced enough to know what's going on, to try starting a business because the rewards of being your own boss are wonderful."

Okay, readers...if you own your own business...give up the goods on how you came to the realization you wanted to run a business instead of working for whatever company you were working for.  Why did you feel the risk was worth taking?  And what business did you choose...something you were familiar with?  Something new?

And for those working for others...if you have thoughts of running a business someday...what type of business would you like to run?  And why?

MT

Quote of the Week - We're Just Ants!

"If you study an ant colony, you will find it has a life cycle — it’s robust, it’s adaptive. However, if you ask any individual ant what’s going on, they have no clue. They’re working with local information and local interaction. I think there’s a very clear parallel to markets. How do markets get to be efficient? The answer is it’s an interaction among a lot of diverse investors. The aggregation mechanism to bring the information together is the stock exchange, and then what emerges from that is the stock market.

The important takeaway is it’s impossible to understand the market by interviewing individual investors because each investor only has a partial piece of the picture. It’s the aggregation that allows the full picture to emerge. What the ant colonies teach us is that in markets, cause and effect are very difficult to pin down. Sometimes we like to think that the experts on TV or the pundits quoted in the Wall Street Journal know what’s going on. They’re really just ants." -- Michael Mauboussin

The above quote comes from Mauboussin's article, "Guppies, ants, and golf swings: Mental models for investors." This quote really defines the methodology I have adopted in trading. Forget how you feel about the stock. It doesn't matter. Forget how you feel about the market...it doesn't matter. Who cares if we're in a housing bubble, USD is going lower, inflation, deflation, yakkity-yak...don't come back. The only thing that matters is what the market thinks.

The market is really just a glorified voting system. You may believe Google, Starbucks or Milli Vanilli is road kill. But, if the vast majority of participants believe it's the next best thing...then it is. I know, I know...you know better....but you're just one vote...amongst millions of voters. Know matter how strongly you feel about something...it's just a drop in the bucket.

So, why fight it? I ask's ya's!?! Just go with it. Embrace your inner ant.


MT

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Just want to wish everyone a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving!  This will be our first Thanksgiving in Missouri and we're really looking forward to it.  Plus, it will be our son's first Thanksgiving.

The best part is I have 4 full days of complete rest ahead of me.  Definitely time for catching a movie or two.  And many other things I've put off for far too long.

I leave you with a rather interesting thread over at the Trading Blox Forum on Pre-emptive money management.  Provides food for thought on volatility based position sizing.  Is volatility predictable?  If so, should we adjust our position size to anticipated changes in volatilty?  Since our current position size is based on historical volatility.

This also begs the question as to the use of historical volatility in position sizing.  Is past volatility a good measure of future volatility?  Should we use a shorter time frame for measurement?  Or longer?  Or weight the average?  Seasonality may be a poor choice to predict changes in price but what about changes in volatility?

Is all this getting way to complicated?  Would we instead be better off just randomly choosing a number?  And one more question...when do your best returns occur?  During periods of high volatility?  Or low?  How about your worst returns?

As always, something to explore.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"There's a great story about a famous local trader at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).  One day, he was on the floor of the CBOT and a U.S. inflation number came out that was totally unexpected.  Pure pandemonium ensued.  When all the noise died down, he walked out of the pit having made $10 million and said, "By the way, what was the number?" -- humorous story shared by Dr. John Porter in the book, Inside the House of Money

It's official...the new trading system is in production.  A week earlier than the deadline.  Much of the work was done in R.  In fact, a few times in the project, I just don't know what I'd do without the fantastic little language.  Python and Ruby was used as well.  Along with Wealth-Lab.

That's it from my part of the world...where I'm eagerly anticipating my first Missouri snowfall. 

And enjoying the cool vlog, WallStrip.  It's the first stock market show I've seen where the highlighted stocks are chosen from a valid investing concept.  Who'd a thunk it?  Smart!

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"Implied volatility is based on historical volatility, but who cares about historicals? They're irrelevant. The point is, things can happen for the first time that aren't in your distribution so they can't be priced. If it's never happened before, how can you hedge yourself? The only way to hedge the unknown is to cut off tail risk completely." -- Jim Leitner from the interview in Inside the House of Money

MT

Quote of the Week

"All these years I had been sustained by an illusion - happiness through victory - and now that illusion was blurred to ashes. I was no happier, no more fulfilled, for all my achievements.

Finally I saw through the clouds. I saw that I had never learned how to enjoy life, only how to achieve. All my life I had been busy seeking happiness, not finding it." -- Dan Millman's character in the Way of the Peaceful Warrior.

MT

Quote of the Week

"In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." -- Eric Hoffer

Sorry everyone for the lack of posts or response to emails.  I'm trying to meet a November 1st deadline for a new trading system.  And between that and the entire family being sick from a nasty little cold bug...well I haven't been up for much else.

I do appreciate your patience...and hope to get back to the normal routine soon.  In fact, once I push this trading system to production...I plan on taking a nice long break from the trading system turret.  Catch a few breaths before my next run.  Ha ha!

Until then, hop on over to the StockTickr Blog and read Jon Tait's interview.  One of the best interviews yet from StockTickr.  Jon's a smart cookie and shares some great insights into system trading and market behavior.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"Many questions are unanswerable.  Many answers are questionable."  -- from a fortune cookie

Wow, the above quote is so true.  I have dug a little deeper into everything I have worked on the past several years.  Calling into question my beliefs and attitudes towards the market.  I was so wrong.  It all started from a seed that Eric Crittenden planted into my head.  "Sounds like an exercise in curve-fitting", he said, in reference to one of my system ideas.

Then a friend introduced me to the concept of focusing on what you don't like to do and casting it aside in order to free yourself for the things you do like to do.  The butterfly began to flutter...

"It has been said something as small as the flutter of a butterfly's wing can ultimately cause a typhoon halfway around the world." - Chaos Theory

Next, I watched the recent show on Sabermetrics where they discussed Bill James and many of the very cool things brought out in Moneyball.  Flutter, flutter.

Finally, my recent foray into the hazards and pennywinks of developing a trading platform has brought out a very interesting focus to my trading.  What would I like in a platform?  What am I really trying to test?  How is a certain test helpful to my bottom-line?

And all that has helped me to understand what I've been missing.  I've been focusing on the wrong thing!  So much of my time was spent on my next trade.  Kinda like in Sabermetrics where they found too much focus was on RBI's or Homeruns.  Bill James found Outs was where the focus should be. 

And I think in trading...the focus should be on the only fixed rule that I know exists:  If you don't use margin...your losses are limited to 100%.  But, as long you don't cap your profits in any major way...your gains are infinite.  With that in mind, where should your focus be?  And what kind of formulas and tools can we use to measure this new focus?  For example, the smoothness the Sharpe Ratio tries to show becomes something of a throw-away...a tool/formula used to measure the wrong focus in your trading.  Don't understand?  Maybe this will help.  Or maybe not:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/0603_coverstory.pdf

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week - Kaizen

"The most important choice you make is what you choose to make important" -- Michael Neill

I had coffee with a friend today that brought up an interesting topic. He said, instead of thinking about all the things you like to do or would like to do and persuing them. Step back a moment and think about all the things you do not like to do...and stop doing them. A lot to chew on for yours truly.

First off, because it is very hard for me to think about what I don't like to do. Perhaps because I've spent so much time and effort in determining what I like to do? Or maybe I don't like to admit there are things I don't like to do?

Reminds me of Kaizen. Eliminating activities that add cost and do not add value in an effort to continuously improve. We could all use that, right?

So, here I am thinking about what I don't like about investing/trading.

1) I don't like nothingness. I don't mind drawdowns...at least something is happening. And of course, I love when I'm reaching new equity highs. But, I absolutely abhor nothingness. That period of time when your investments just sit there and do nothing. I don't like that. Which is a bad thing...since most of an investor's time is spent in nothingness.

2) I don't like gut feel investments. I want a precise method to follow that lets me know exactly when to buy and when to sell. Thus, the reason for developing trading systems.

3) I don't enjoy buying and selling stocks. I enjoy researching trading ideas and building systems around those ideas. But, the actual buying and selling of stocks is not fun for me. Would enjoy things much better if someone else traded my systems, so to speak.

That's about it as far as my dislikes. Not too bad. One day I need to write what I like about investing/trading.

Trading Platform Update:
I've made lots of progress on the trading platform front. But, so much still to go. I'm spending equal time in Python and Ruby in this quest. My major roadblock right now is obtaining the most efficient way to process historical stock data against portfolio data.

Most trading platforms process a symbol at a time. But, doing that prevents you from ranking all stocks triggered for a given day along with the currently held stocks and choosing the top 10, 20, etc. Because you'd have to read all symbols and all dates in order to get at a certain date for all symbols.

So, I'm trying date processing instead. Spin through all the symbols for a given date instead of all dates for a given symbol. Doing this would enable me to rank, adjust, etc. prior to the next day of trade. But, going this route scares me due to performance issues. Maybe it won't be so bad. We will see.

If anyone has ideas on this subject, please send my way. The main goal of the project is to avoid memory intensive methods. The reason? The trading systems I work with consists of all stocks in the US Markets going back 20 years or so. It crashes Wealth-Lab due to its memory method of position sizing despite 2GB of memory. I could buy more memory, but that would be too easy. :-)

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week - Dilbert?

"I'm a great student of successful people, and usually at some point in their careers, they've had to take a huge risk. That used to cause a dull ache in my stomach. I still get it, but now I ignore it." -- Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert

MT

Fall Movies

Wow, there is nothing like Fall movie lineups to get you going.  And this season looks to be a good one.  Here's just a few of the movies that caught my eye and will likely see...

We Are Marshall & Facing the Giants - Nothing like football movies in the Fall.

A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints - Returning home again?

The Departed - Good Cop?  Bad Cop?

Fearless - Jet Li...Martial Arts...need I say more?

Enjoy the weekend!

MT

Quote of the Week - Mindsets

"Often when you mention risk, what people think of is the downside. Danger. That's not the entrepreneurial mind-set," she said. "The entrepreneurial mind-set is that risk is the heightened probability that there is a big range of possible outcomes." -- Heidi Roizen

The above quote is from Money.com's recent series on What it takes to be rich. I love the story describing growth mindsets versus fixed mindsets.

Dweck, the psychologist who studies growth mind-sets, created an experiment to demonstrate how persistence and the pursuit of knowledge leads to success. She posed a series of trivia questions to a group of people with fixed mind-sets and another with growth mind-sets.

After each answer, one and a half seconds passed before the participants were told whether they were right or wrong, and, if they were wrong, another one and a half seconds lapsed before they were given the correct response. Their brains were monitored with electrodes the entire time.

Dweck found that the people with fixed mind-sets cared a lot about whether they were right or wrong but not at all about what the right answer was. The growth-mind-set participants stayed interested until the correct answer was given, showing an interest in learning new information rather than in simply validating their intelligence.

more from Carol Dweck...

People with fixed mind-sets believe that they were born with a certain amount of intelligence, and they strive to convince the world of their brilliance so that no one finds out they're not actually geniuses.

Growth-mind-set people believe that intelligence, knowledge and skill need to be "cultivated" by trial and error. Failing at something, they believe, is the best way to ensure they'll succeed at it the next time.

This growth mindset versus fixed mindset sounds so interesting...I just might have to go out and read her new book:

Follow along with the Money.com's series here...
Lesson 1: Make your own luck
Lesson 1, Corollary 1: Building 'social capital' often pays off in the end.
Lesson 2: Failing at something is the best way to ensure success at it the next time.
Lesson 2, Corollary 1: Successful people are always on the look out for new experiences that they can later build on.
Lesson 2, Corollary 2: If you see an opportunity, take it. But that doesn't mean betting the ranch.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week - I Love Ruby!

"It is not the responsibility of the language to force good looking code, but the language should make good looking code possible." -- Yukihiro Matsumoto

I just discovered the power of Ruby!!!

More later,

MT

Quote of the Week - Programming

"And don't write longer, more obtuse code because you think it's faster. Remember, hardware gets faster. MUCH faster, every year. But code has to be maintained by programmers, and there's a shortage of good programmers out there. So, if I write a program that's incredibly maintainable and extensible and it's a bit too slow, next year I'm going have a huge hit on my hands. And the year after that, and the year after that.

If you write code with more code that's fast now, you're going to have a hit on your hands. And next year, you're going to have a giant mess to maintain, and it's going to slow you down adding features and fixing bugs, and someone's going to come along and eat your lunch." -- Wil Shipley

Great quote!  Read more on this topic here.

MT

Development 0.1

"Be careful about using the following code -- I've only proven that it works, I haven't tested it." -- Donald Knuth

I have finally started my dynamic allocation of equity project.  This is something I've stewed about for several weeks...okay...maybe months.  But, after meeting with Jon for lunch this weekend...I finally got the motivation back to begin work on the project.  Thanks Jon!

And seeing as how I hardly ever write anything of significance on this blog...I figure I'd start documenting some of the steps I'm taking to get this project on the road.

First thing was to find a better coding environment than what I was using.  I have been using the PythonWin IDE for my trials and tribulations.  I needed more oomph.  Hopped over to Vim and have hunted and pecked my way around a bit.  No flow joe yet.

Before moving on...does anybody know of a windows or even linux distro of the EVE$EDITOR?  Somebody?  Anybody?  Hello?

Just a week ago, I found out about the new Pydev extension to Eclipse.  Pretty nice.  It's still not perfect...but much closer to what I'm looking for.  So, now that I've found an IDE that allows me to play in the sandbox a bit...on to the database choice.

I downloaded pytables due to their "designed to efficiently and easily cope with extremely large amounts of data" claim to fame.  And then did nothing with it.  It's not the relational type of storage I'm used to...so maybe that's why.  Thought maybe a viewer would help, so downloaded the vitables viewer.  It was nice...but still did nothing with it.

Okay, maybe I'm making this too hard.  One of the python programmers I know mentioned Sqlite.  Downloaded it.  Found the python extension for it here.  Explored documentation for working with it here and here.  Now, I'm getting somewhere.  Wrote a few python modules to test create, insert, drop, and fetch.  Here they are:

Create Table in Python/Sqlite:

******Begin of Code***********************
from pysqlite2 import dbapi2 as sqlite

conn = sqlite.connect("TaylorTree")
cursor = conn.cursor()

SQL = """
    create table MarketDaily
    (
      Symbol    text,
      Bar       SQL_DATE,
      Open      float,
      High      float,
      Low       float,
      Close     float,
      Volume    float,
      AdjClose  float,
      primary key (Symbol, Bar)
    );
      """
cursor.execute(SQL)
******End of Code***********************

Insert into Table:

******Begin of Code***********************
from pysqlite2 import dbapi2 as sqlite

conn = sqlite.connect("TaylorTree")
cursor = conn.cursor()

SQL = """
    insert into MarketDaily
    (Symbol, Bar, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, AdjClose)
    values
    (
        "YHOO",
        20060801,
        20.00,
        25.00,
        19.00,
        22.00,
        50000,
        22.00
    );
      """
cursor.execute(SQL)

conn.commit()
******End of Code***********************

Fetch from Table:

******Begin of Code***********************
from pysqlite2 import dbapi2 as sqlite

conn = sqlite.connect("TaylorTree")
cursor = conn.cursor()

SQL = "select * from MarketDaily"
cursor.execute(SQL)
# Retrieve all rows as a sequence and print that sequence:
print cursor.fetchall()

cursor.close()
******End of Code***********************

Drop Table:

******Begin of Code***********************
from pysqlite2 import dbapi2 as sqlite

conn = sqlite.connect("TaylorTree")
cursor = conn.cursor()

SQL = "drop table MarketDaily"

cursor.execute(SQL)
******End of Code***********************

Not too bad.  Not too hard.  But, then I figured I'd make a module that would handle all this stuff for me.  Some hard work began...all because I had no idea how to use symbolics in Python/SQL.  Finally discovered the needle in a haystack...'%s'.  Aha!

******Begin of Code***********************
from pysqlite2 import dbapi2 as sqlite
conn = sqlite.connect("TaylorTree")
cursor = conn.cursor()

def UpdatePrice(sym, b, o, h, l, c, v, ac):
    SQL = """
          insert into MarketDaily
          (Symbol, Bar, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, AdjClose)
          values
          (
              '%s',
              %s,
              %s,
              %s,
              %s,
              %s,
              %s,
              %s
          );
          """ % (sym, b, o, h, l, c, v, ac)
    cursor.execute(SQL)
    conn.commit()
******End of Code***********************

After spending a lot of time getting all that going...I then turn back to pytables.  Maybe I need to dig deeper there.  Found some very good documentation here.  But, I'm still sitting here...nothing.  Hey, someone give me some motivation on working with this bad boy!  Anybody have any experience to share in regard to pytables?  If so, bring it on!  I need some mojo!

And that's where I am now.  Oh...and of course, will begin working on spinning through TC2005's databank and load historics into Sqlite.  How do I do that?  That involves working with COM objects and Python makes it very easy for you.  In fact...I'm amazed at how complicated it is to call a COM object from Microsoft's own languages like C#.  In python...all you have to do in order to get to the TC2005 COM object is...

******Begin of Code********
import win32com.client
w=win32com.client.Dispatch("TC2000Dev.cTC2005")
******End of Code**********

2 lines.  Now, I'm sure there is a much easier way to call a COM Object in C# that what I was trying to do.  If anyone out there knows how...please leave a comment.  I'm really interested to see how many lines it takes to connect.

One last thing...if C# is your thing...check out Microsoft's free version of Visual Studio, C#, and even SQL Server via the Express Editions.  C# not your cup of tea?  There is Visual Basic, Visual C++, and even Visual J++.

And that's it from here...where I'm hoping to catch up on some much needed sleep.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote and Thread of the Week

"One of the best attributes I know a trader to have is humility. The best traders I know admit to knowing very little about what the market will do or don't pretend to have any kind of secret method or style or edge that others don't have. They just go in to work everyday like a brick layer. Their goal is to lay bricks. One at a time. And hopefully at the end of their life they have built a solid foundation. That's all a trader can hope for." -- Maverick74

Found the great quote above perusing EliteTrader this weekend.  The thread is titled, Writing Options for a Living, read here.  You'll have to be patient because a lot of time is spent with posts from people still believing in the Easter Bunny.  But, there are a few gems to be found...especially from Maverick74, riskarb, and a few others.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

" Becoming wealthy is like playing Monopoly.. the person who can accumulate the most assets wins the game."
-- Noel Whittaker

MT

Thread of the Week - Birth of a Turtle

Came across a great thread this weekend regarding Curtis Faith and his Turtle background.  Read here.  I especially enjoyed the story of his initial programming experience converting trading systems.  What a great first job.  And of course, always hungry for insights and traits into what makes a successful trader.  Here's Mr. Faith's take:

The ones who were successful had more emotional control. The ones who weren't successful were either too intellectually insecure and unable to commit to a strategy, too greedy, too emotionally invested in their financial success, too affected by the large swings in equity, or too averse to the risks required to trade well (probably due to a lack of confidence in themselves). One of the things that distinguished the good Turtles from the ones that were completely unsuccessful is their personalities. The traders with a more intellectual and systematic approach to life were much more successful than the emotional traders who really wanted to make a lot of money.

And finally, one of the most important insights Curtis makes:

...all successful people owe their success to the help of others. They therefore have an obligation and usually a desire to pass on the craft, to teach and help others.

I am thankful that such a thing is true.  I owe many thanks to the people that have helped my programming and trading experience grow in the right direction.  In a sense, we are all like those baby turtles Mr. Dennis refers to.  Just trying to make it out to sea and swim with the big dogs.  And avoid the many perils from beach to sea.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"There is no doubt in my mind that systems and styles which offer a rougher ride will hold up more over the long run because not as many traders and certainly almost no institutional money wants the ride.




You will make more money if you can take the pain. Unfortunately, you will make little or none if you think you can but it ends up that you can't."
- Curtis Faith -


MT