The critical ingredient is a maverick mind. Focus on trading vehicles, strategies and time horizons that suit your personality. In a nutshell, it all comes down to: Do your own thing (independence); and do the right thing (discipline). -- Gil Blake
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Portfolio Performance for May 2009
The main crux of my problem is building a platform that is very flexible but highly efficient. If I was developing a platform that tested less than 2 gig of data...I'd be home free. But, get past the 2 gig barrier and all kinds of these wonderful flexible designs and databases everyone uses as default must be thrown out the window. Can't use a database in the traditional sense for your time series. Not if you want your simulation to finish in under an hour.
The simplest approach is to use flat text files as I've mentioned in the blog before. But, as you ramp up the dynamic nature of your simulation testing...you need a way to index those files. And the kicker is even the index cannot fit into memory. So, you wrestle with the memory barrier and disk io. Even creating binary files in order to reduce the size of your files. But, binary files limit your flexibility. I'm still testing and refining the solution...but slowly getting there. Basically taking a process that used to run 45 minutes long and dropped it down to less than 10 minutes. With the added ability to randomly seek to any date or symbol in the 20,000 symbol database quicker than you can say Jack Robinson.
Oh well, moving on. It's way past portfolio performance time...so better late than never...the portfolio performance as of May 2009:
As you can see...I'm still getting trounced by the market. Largely, because I'm still 50% in cash and the system normally doesn't perform well during these sharp bouncing bottoms the market has recently experienced. That's the one thing that has been difficult the past few weeks with all the recent buy signals. Many of the signals are from stocks that have already surged greater than 50% to 100% in just one month. Even though my position size is very small per stock...it is still at times tough to buy such a strong performing stock.
And that's it from here where I'm looking forward to the 4th of July, a few cold ones, and time with family.
Finally, my sister-in-law turned the big 40 today. Happy Birthday!
Later Trades,
MT
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Portfolio Performance for March 2009
A brief look at the charts below details my fear...the market surged upward with 100% of its money in the stock market. Me? My portfolio is over 50% in cash...therefore cash lag is kicking in for March. And my portfolio will suffer until that situation rectifies...ala more buy signals.
May is gearing up for another busy month for yours truly. Plus, it will soon be summer vacation time. We're researching cabin rentals on the waterfront. Two summers ago we spent a day swimming at Table Rock Lake and had a blast. Looking to expand on that this summer. But, doesn't have to be Table Rock. If anyone has any recommends...send my way.
And that's it from Mid-Mo, where garden stores are packed full of anxious gardeners trying to make the most out of the first dry, sunny, and warm weekend in months.
Later Trades,
MT
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Management by Walking Around - Michael Newcombe
But, I'm a big big believer in the practice of management by walking around. In many ways, its the most efficient means of gathering information.
It also shines the light on areas in the organization that are traditionally kept in the dark. And bridges communication gaps between areas that most believe are independent of one another.
Perhaps the greatest impact of management by walking around is organizational change. Mr. Bregman's website says it best:
"Experience shows that an organization can spend five years implementing a "change" program - and it usually takes people five days (or less) to find a way around it and do things the way they always did."How do people choose to change? The majority of changes occurs from a negative experience. Or better yet...a person chooses to avoid change in fear of a negative experience. This is where management by walking around comes into play. Or can come into play. I've actually seen the practice where management by walking around can increase those fears. But, done right...actually shines the light into areas most people fear. Enabling people with new approaches to difficult problems.
"Organizational change is a lagging indicator of personal change. When enough people in an organization begin to do things differently, the organization changes. And personal change happens not because people are told to change. Not because they are trained to change. Not even because they are motivated to change. People change because they choose to change."
Side note, have you seen the new Dave Robicheaux movie starring Tommie Lee Jones, In the Electric Mist? Very good. I'm sure part of the enjoyment comes from the Louisiana setting...makes me long for the East Texas backwoods. Gotta get down there this summer and eat some crawfish. Oh, and don't miss the performance of Levon Helm in the movie. Not as good as the part he played in Shooter...but still noteworthy.
Later trades,
MT
Monday, March 16, 2009
New Growth and Old Age
These theories apply to us as well. As we get older we accept less risk...and therefore our growth rate slows. We have more hooks into us. People counting on us. And plus, we're OLD! ;-)
mt
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Portfolio Performance for February 2009
Another common logic trap is should I second guess my system? Should I take the next trade? A few weeks ago...I received several new signals...and I took every one of them only to see several of them hit their exit signals last week.
You want to change your rules...filter out times like these...so difficult to watch your money be eaten away by the current market forces.
But, that is why you test your ideas so fully...both in good times and bad. So, you can continue to follow your system despite all the others washing away in this storm.
I'm sure there will be more weeks if not months that I buy stocks only to sell them weeks later. As bad as it sounds to yours truly, more months of drawdown. But, I have accepted this fate. I have accepted these circumstances because I have tested every ounce of my ideas in every market I can imagine...and I agreed to the results.
And when the storm is over...and everyone is afraid to buy stocks...my system will continue to generate signals of stocks to buy. And I will buy them. And follow the market wherever it leads despite how difficult that may be.
Later Trades,
MT
Monday, February 02, 2009
Portfolio Performance for January 2009
You can see below that we're beginning to lose money again...though not as bad as the market. The reason for this is because I've received several new signals the past few weeks which have creeped up the percent invested in the portfolio. Still nowhere near fully invested levels...but at least getting the barrel loaded in case the market takes a turn for the better.
The chart below details max drawdown levels for the portfolio and the market. Not sure how much help this is in evaluating the portfolio against the market. Especially when the main difference between the market's drawdown versus TaylorTree is the capital invested. It is as simple as that.
Now, on to some good news. The trading platform is beginning to shape up nicely. For the first time in several years of trading I have the maintenance of the portfolio completely automated. No, that doesn't mean orders are automatically placed with my broker. What it does mean is my portfolio is now completely monitored for sell signals, additional buy signals, stale positions, etc. Might not sound like much...but you'd be surprised at how much manual effort there is in trading a system - from managing the data sources to ensuring all positions are accounted for each and every night.
The next step and one I'm not especially looking forward to is creating several test cases for the money overlay of the backtesting platform. Things can get complicated very quickly in this area. And I want to make sure I've captured all the requirements of the platform before I begin coding. This is the area where I always get stuck due to the requirement of handling multiple trading systems, leverage, and various cash options in real-time. Also, I want the ability to dump unused cash directly to the market. Very interested in how the portfolio will handle being in the market 100% of the time when the trading systems are not utilizing 100% of the capital.
Later Trades,
MT
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Portfolio Performance for December 2008
I'm afraid the portfolio nor the market changed much in December. Like watching paint dry. Oh, I'm sure there's quite a few market prognosticators out there shaking the tea leaves. Looking back on what they did right for the year and what they expect for the new one. I guess, I should do the same...
What I did right for 2008?
- Traded the system without question.
- Eliminated all market news and views from my trading turret.
- Completed the rebuild of the backtesting platform's foundation.
- Incorporated portfolio tracking in the platform.
What to expect for 2009?
- Add a charting component to the platform.
- Generate better performance reports from simulations.
- Code and compare the internal file system in numpy, sqlite, berkeley db, and plain old csv files (which it is currently).
- Simplify the scanning component and explore multi-core options.
- Replace the aging windows box with a fresh linux version.
- Enable portfolio allocations at the trading system level. This way can test effects of combining systems and determine optimal allocation levels.
- Create a nice front-end for the platform.
Later Trades,
MT
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Portfolio Performance for November 2008
As you can see, more of the same. Market is down...TaylorTree not so much. The simple strategy of scaling out of the market as the market moves further down reduces our downside volatility at the expense of upside returns. No timing going on here at all. Just positions being sold due to stop losses and a lack of new signals to use up that cash.
By the way, I have updated the looks of the site. It is still a work in progress...but hopefully an improvement. I especially like the Recent Bookmarks and research via TaylorTree sections. Automates the "What I'm Researching" posts.
Later Trades,
MT
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
What I'm Researching...
CodeProject: Optimizing a Function of One Variable. Posted: 26 Nov 2008 12:31 AM CST find the minimum or maximum over an interval. nice. |
Posted: 26 Nov 2008 12:27 AM CST contains manual and faq. this tool allows dynamic reporting via sweave & R language. can generate latex docs which can gen to pdf or even html via R's R2HTML function. |
Posted: 26 Nov 2008 12:24 AM CST interesting open source latex editor to check out. |
Sweave: First steps toward reproducible analyses Posted: 26 Nov 2008 12:23 AM CST embed R code via sweave to generate latex document containing results. awesome! must use this for my next presentation paper. |
Moving data between R, Excel, and the Windows clipboard Posted: 26 Nov 2008 12:19 AM CST nice summary of writeClipboard, readClipboard, and scan, read.table, and write.table functions. |
How to write parallel programs (pdf) Posted: 25 Nov 2008 12:06 AM CST Nice intro to parallel programming. Need to spend more time with this paper. |
R/S-PLUS Fundamentals and Programming Techniques (pdf) Posted: 24 Nov 2008 11:58 PM CST nice coverage of programming in R language. From reading data, plotting data, managing code, logging analysis, and bootstrapping. |
Friday, November 14, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 13 Nov 2008 01:00 PM CST great summaries on the classic rexx functions. |
Posted: 13 Nov 2008 12:53 PM CST Joel on Software's Real World. A must see! |
Reading List: Fog Creek Software Management Training Program - Joel on Software Posted: 13 Nov 2008 12:50 PM CST great reading list! |
In Python how do I sort a list of dictionaries by values of the dictionary? - Stack Overflow
Posted: 09 Nov 2008 09:29 PM CST
AT&T Labs Research - Yoix / YWAIT Posted: 07 Nov 2008 07:36 AM CST Interesting way to build a web application. Wonder how complex this would be to use versus traditional web-based systems (LAMP)? This may be easier to deploy if the goal of the software is simulation/visualizations. Something to toy with. |
AT&T Labs Research - Yoix / Byzgraf Posted: 07 Nov 2008 07:33 AM CST Another great looking toolset using Yoix that enables plotting functions: line, bar, histograms, etc. |
AT&T Labs Research - Yoix / YDAT Posted: 07 Nov 2008 07:32 AM CST Extremely cool visualization toolset from AT&T Labs Research. Handles graphviz files. |
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Portfolio Performance for October 2008
The human mind is a funny, funny thing...behaving binary with pain. If you've never experienced the pain of a hurricane, snowstorm, loss of a loved one, or the falling knife of the market...you're set to 0. You operate without fear. But, once you experience the pain...you're set to 1. And everything you do from that point forward is now based off that pain. Based off that switch.
And that switch is a bugger to reset. Most people can't do it. The instant the pain hits they begin tweaking their life as if the odds of experiencing that pain again has increased to a 100% certainty. Funny part is...
- the odds of experiencing the pain hasn't increased
- all those tweaks won't do a thing to prevent future pain.
What's my point? Invest in the market knowing the worst will happen. The foundation of your investment strategy should be able to withstand the storm. If you're busy tweaking your strategy right now in an attempt to avoid the next storm, trying to pick and choose your investment spots, thinking all the work you're doing will sidestep the next storm because you figured out how to handle this storm...then your bit is set to 1. And this cowboy quote likely fits:
Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.And with that the performance charts for the month of October 2008.
We're experiencing a fairly hefty drawdown as is the market. I've received several exit signals over the past 2 months. At one of the highest level of cash since investing in the market. And doing nothing but patiently waiting out the storm.
That, and preparing for a cold Missouri winter.
Later Trades,
MT
Friday, November 07, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Overview of RAMFS and TMPFS on Linux Posted: 06 Nov 2008 11:02 PM CST Map your memory as a drive? Wonder how this would work if you built a linux server with 32gb memory and mapped at least half that dedicated for simulations? How much faster would this be versus traditional disk-based sims? |
Replacing multiple occurrences in nested arrays - Stack Overflow Posted: 06 Nov 2008 10:58 PM CST will this work in updating a dictionary of prices? if you have a dictionary of portfolio positions with values being python lists...would this be a good solution in updating the closing price of the stock (one of the items in the list)? |
Friday, October 31, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Producing Open Source Software Posted: 30 Oct 2008 09:56 PM CDT very cool online book detailing the starting of an open source project. |
OmniTI ~ Careers ~ Site Reliability Engineer Posted: 28 Oct 2008 12:04 PM CDT one of the best job descriptions I've read on working as an operations engineer. best two quotes: "If you don't grow, you'll fail." & "Think of it like any other fun and challenging job you've had -- now remove the margin for error." How true! |
Monday, October 27, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 26 Oct 2008 02:28 PM CDT pre-installed linux provider |
Posted: 26 Oct 2008 02:26 PM CDT pre-installed linux computers (laptops, desktops, servers). |
Posted: 26 Oct 2008 11:18 AM CDT date, time, calendar manipulations in R. Sample functions are diffTimeDate, isWeekday, isWeekend, and the very cool timeNdayOnOrAfter, timeNthNdayInMonth, timeLastNdayInMonth. |
How To... Mount Your Computer Screen Posted: 26 Oct 2008 10:17 AM CDT details how to wall mount your monitor. very cool. |
Javascript style dot notation for dictionary keys unpythonic? - Stack Overflow
Posted: 23 Oct 2008 06:59 AM CDT
Posted: 22 Oct 2008 12:38 PM CDT really cool flex library to display graphviz graphs. haven't explored the flex toolset before...but may have to check it out. |
z/OS Workload Manager - How it works & How to use it (pdf) Posted: 21 Oct 2008 12:18 AM CDT Great summary on Workload Manager (WLM)...including tips for setup and troubleshooting existing setups. |
Monday, October 20, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 20 Oct 2008 12:17 AM CDT extremely cool application dock for windows. |
Python Programming/Lists - Wikibooks, collection of open-content textbooks Posted: 20 Oct 2008 12:12 AM CDT Great collection of python list examples. |
Introduction To New-Style Classes in Python Posted: 19 Oct 2008 01:18 AM CDT great explanation of python classes. check out the final part discussing the __slots__ feature. basically, reserve attributes...those not defined cannot be assigned. |
Posted: 18 Oct 2008 12:30 PM CDT html version of the pytables userguide. |
rdoc:graphics:barplot [R Wiki] Posted: 17 Oct 2008 04:22 PM CDT R doc for barplot |
Welcome to DrQueue Commercial Website Posted: 12 Oct 2008 11:44 PM CDT queue manager with python binding. looks to be used as a render manager...but could see other uses as well. |
Building home linux render cluster Posted: 12 Oct 2008 11:30 PM CDT excellent article on building a cheap 24 core x 48GB ram linux cluster. |
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Portfolio Performance for September 2008
September's VAMI
September's ROI
As you can see, not a great month of performance. And while the downside doesn't feel good...my greatest concern is the upside that will come. When it does...the portfolio will lag the market due to the relatively high level of cash. But, nothing we can do...but be patient and allow the system to do its job.
Last thing you want to do during turbulent times is hit the panic button. Or worse, try to figure this market out. You don't figure a hurricane out while you're in the middle of it. Don't buy a generator, food, and flood insurance during a hurricane. Those are things you buy prior. The only thing you can do when the storm hits is batten down the hatches and hope you prepared enough for the damage to come. After the storm is over...reassess what you did right and what was lacking. Oh, and clear those fallen trees from your portfolio.
On a side note...I've spent the weekend putting together a new office. I've bought several office pieces and trying to find the optimal setup. Once I've got everything moved in...I'll share some pics of the new digs.
Later trades,
MT
What's an Outsider to do?
Same goes with people. Typically, talk very little about the market to others. And rarely hear more than a peep or two about the market from others in the water cooler discussions.
That is until now. This recent market debacle has really changed things. Howard is causing me to eat mucho brussel sprouts. My wife is hearing about the market on Dr. Phil & Oprah of all things. And even my programming bloggers are discussing the economy and the hoozy whatsits of the markets.
So, what's an outsider to do? Well, we should ask ourselves what a maverick would do and do that. Or watch these videos for inspiration...
If those don't make you laugh...just remember my fellow mavericks...this too shall pass.
Later Trades,
MT
Thursday, October 09, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 08 Oct 2008 12:27 PM CDT examples of barplotting in R - color the bars, horizontal axis, stacked bar graph, and side by side graphs. |
R Functions and Procedures We Should Know Posted: 08 Oct 2008 12:26 PM CDT common functions in R - just a brief command set. |
Gmail, Weather, Beauty on your Ubuntu Desktop | Quick Tweaks Posted: 08 Oct 2008 11:59 AM CDT very cool desktop for ubuntu. |
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Linus' blog: .. so I got one of the new Intel SSD's Posted: 07 Oct 2008 10:02 PM CDT great analysis on evaluating SSD hard drives. read the comments for more info. as an aside...linus has a blog...cool. |
Posted: 07 Oct 2008 12:45 PM CDT monte carlo in python? looks worth exploring further. |
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
What I'm Researching...
The Sect of Homokaasu - The Rasterbator Posted: 07 Oct 2008 01:45 AM CDT Cool, print huge posters from normal paper - software breaks up images to fit on 8.5 x 11 paper. Hat-tip to my wife for finding this site. |
Posted: 06 Oct 2008 12:43 PM CDT Great site covering formulas of investment stats. Useful for coding the performance part of the testing platform. |
pickle(cPickle) vs numpy tofile/fromfile - Python - Snipplr Posted: 05 Oct 2008 11:09 PM CDT interesting code snippet comparing performance of cpickle and numpy to/from file routines. been thinking about this lately...using numpy directly or cpickle instead of using a bloated dbms for persistent storage of time series on the testing platform. |
HintsForSQLUsers - Hierarchical Datasets in Python Posted: 05 Oct 2008 11:06 PM CDT covers many of the faq of SQL developers when developing with PyTables. |
EasyvizDocumentation - scitools - Google Code - Easyviz Documentation Posted: 05 Oct 2008 09:55 PM CDT Python plotting interface to various backend plotting engines: Gnuplot, Matplotlib, Grace, Veusz, PyX, VTK, VisIt, OpenDX, and a few more. Seems like a fairly straight-forward interface. And choosing the backend used is a one-line import statement. Interesting. |
Posted: 05 Oct 2008 12:25 PM CDT looks like a dead-simple plotting library in python to produce pub quality pdf/ps images. Need to explore. |
Sunday, October 05, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 05 Oct 2008 12:12 AM CDT WYSIWYG Javascript WYSIWYG editor - haven't tried it...but may be worth testing on a new project of mine. |
PyTables - Hierarchical Datasets in Python Posted: 04 Oct 2008 01:35 PM CDT the original python interface to the HDF5 library. Have tested this before...need to test again using new architecture. Original tests found speeds that were equivalent to SQLite but of course slower than CSV files. |
Python bindings for the HDF5 library — h5py v0.3.1 documentation Posted: 04 Oct 2008 01:33 PM CDT a python interface to the excellent HDF5 library. worth testing in project. |
Posted: 04 Oct 2008 12:24 PM CDT enjoyed reading this guy's take on Erlang. Of course, he had me with quoting Unix philosophy, "Do one thing and do it well." |
Optimal RAID setup for SQL server - Stack Overflow Posted: 04 Oct 2008 10:35 AM CDT Excellent Q&A on choosing the optimal RAID config for disk i/o performance. By the by, stackoverflow is an awesome site for programmers!!! |
Saturday, October 04, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 03 Oct 2008 11:45 PM CDT breaks down the colors available to R - both number and symbolic name. |
Posted: 03 Oct 2008 11:29 PM CDT Great examples of barplots in R. |
Dabbleboard - Online whiteboard for drawing & team collaboration Posted: 03 Oct 2008 12:59 PM CDT Awesome drawing application - auto-recognizes shapes and smooths lines from raw drawings. Great tool for flowcharting, room designs, etc. |
ode Like a Pythonista: Idiomatic Python Posted: 29 Sep 2008 09:21 PM CDT takes the basics of python up a notch. definitely pay attention to the dictionary and advanced string formatting examples. |
My no-server personal wiki—Part 3 - And now it’s all this Posted: 02 Oct 2008 11:18 PM CDT Describes in detail how to design a personal wiki. I enjoyed reading the design...I've built a similar html document system in the past. But, never added the markdown features. May have to try this out. |
Monday, September 29, 2008
What I'm Researching...
InterfaceLIFT: Wallpaper sorted by Date Posted: 29 Sep 2008 01:05 AM CDT awesome desktop wallpapers - free download. |
Personal Finance Assistance « ActiveState Code Posted: 28 Sep 2008 03:41 PM CDT great code example of using python and sqlite. |
Posted: 28 Sep 2008 12:34 PM CDT brief coverage of constructing, indexing, slicing, and summation of arrays. |
Sunday, September 28, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Python/CDAT for Earth Scientists: Tips and Examples Posted: 28 Sep 2008 01:15 AM CDT great cookbook covering python & numpy. hat tip to the Smooth blog. Covers plotting, reversing arrays, etc. |
Array creation — NumPy v1.2 Reference Guide (DRAFT) Posted: 28 Sep 2008 01:08 AM CDT Covers creating arrays in NumPy - covers recarrays. to create recarray: x = np.array([(1.0, 2), (3.0, 4)], dtype=[('x', float), ('y', int)]). Then to view as recarray: x = x.view(np.recarray). x.x |
NumPy Reference Guide (DRAFT) — NumPy v1.2 Reference Guide (DRAFT) Posted: 28 Sep 2008 01:00 AM CDT great reference guide to using NumPy. |
http://conference.scipy.org/static/wiki/demo_numpy2.py Posted: 28 Sep 2008 12:08 AM CDT example of creating structured arrays in numpy. |
Posted: 27 Sep 2008 01:16 PM CDT a great resource for SQLite. |
Friday, September 26, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Posted: 26 Sep 2008 01:37 AM CDT Simple tutorial in R from a finance perspective. |
Posted: 26 Sep 2008 01:27 AM CDT excellent guide to tuning SQLite. Need to try some of this stuff. |
Posted: 26 Sep 2008 01:14 AM CDT very comprehensive tutorial on R language. Covers plotting, creating functions/classes/methods, parallel programming, optimizations, etc. Great coverage of databases (sqlite). |
R Graph Gallery (65) Bollinger Bands Posted: 26 Sep 2008 12:54 AM CDT great example of R stock charting. |
Reading and Writing Data in R (pdf) Posted: 26 Sep 2008 12:51 AM CDT great primer on reading/writing large files in R language. |
R functions to read ASCII price series Posted: 26 Sep 2008 12:34 AM CDT several functions to read price series in ASCII format. |
Posted: 26 Sep 2008 12:30 AM CDT R functions for interacting with the CSI Data platform |
R: Econometric tools for performance and risk analysis. Posted: 25 Sep 2008 03:34 PM CDT performance analysis library covering the whole gamut of performance and risk analysis functions. |
TWiki - the Open Source Enterprise Wiki and Web 2.0 Application Platform Posted: 25 Sep 2008 12:27 PM CDT one of the wikis to consider. |
Posted: 25 Sep 2008 12:23 PM CDT cool themes for TiddlyWiki |
Thursday, September 25, 2008
What I'm Researching...
Groovy Domain Specific Language Tutorial « InnovationStartups Posted: 24 Sep 2008 12:50 PM CDT nice example of a stock trading DSL. Not familiar with Groovy...research more. |
Non-Programmer's Tutorial for Python/Contents - Wikibooks, collection of open-content textbooks Posted: 24 Sep 2008 12:55 AM CDT Great tutorial on python. - love the format. |
Posted: 23 Sep 2008 11:15 PM CDT another interesting plotting package in R language. |