Interview with the Stock Bandit

Check out this really nice interview with Jeff White over on the Stocktickr blog. Read the interview here.

I like his KISS principles and the fact he doesn't look for the market to do this or that...just takes what the markets brings to him via his setups. Nice.

MT

Quote of the Week

"In fact, the ironic part of system design is if you want to maximize profits, you must be willing to give back a great deal of the profits you have already accumulated." -- Van K. Tharp

There is a fine line between giving away too much of your profits and giving too little room for your positions to grow.

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

The Six Kase Behavioral Laws of Forecasting

Law Number One: Remember that the objective is profit, not ego-stroking.

Law Number Two: The objective is profitable trading, not proving a thesis or world view.

Law Number Three: When wrong, move on.

Law Number Four: Have confidence in your own intuition. Do not rely on the advice or opinion of others, no matter how well respected they might be.

Law Number Five: Do not read newspaper articles or watch newscasts that discuss the markets in which you have an interest.

Law Number Six: Plan your strategy when the market is closed - when you are rested and thinking clearly.

The above Quote of the Week comes from a new book I'm reading...Trading With The Odds: Using the Power of Probability to Profit in the Futures Market by Cynthia A. Kase.

No doubt, one of the all-time best books I've read on Trading...but I'll warn you...for the experienced system trader only. In other words, I would not have understood many of the fantastic insights offered in this book just a few short years ago.

In fact, while reading this book I was struck with how incredibly difficult it is to become a great system trader. Flourishing as a system trader requires two very different and conflicting mindsets:

#1) A Rule-Follower. Must be a logical thinker willing to break down the most complex of things into a set of rules to follow. And more importantly, be willing to follow the rules you have set. The latter being the hardest part for yours truly.

#2) A Rule-Breaker. In order to grow to higher levels in system trading...you must be willing to break conventional wisdom [rules] in regard to all things people including yourself take for granted. And this where the conflicting mindsets truly come into play. It's very hard to program a set of rules for a system and then allow yourself to see the ways rules can be broken to improve the system. Sounds easy...but very hard. Thinking about this one some more...I believe our true task as a trader is discovering the "real" rules versus the rules we traders have created and hold as "real".

That's what I believe Kase is uncovering in her book...the "real" rules.

Special thanks to Eric for pointing out the Variance Stop technique discussed in Kase's book. Eric's contribution has triggered several exit ideas that I'm currently testing across my systems.

Later Trades,

MT

Nassim Taleb Highlights

Active Trader Magazine interviews Nassim Taleb in the March issue. Here's a few items that Nassim shared:

If you owned an option that was 20 standard deviations out of the money - and I had plenty of those - how many cumulative months of time decay could you sustain if it moved into the money?...it was 67,000 months of time decay.

If you have a 24-sigma even on an option that's 24 standard deviations out of the money, your payoff is 750,000 times your bet.

We're not programmed to deal with variables that can take very large deviations. We tend to not pay at all for things when we don't have reason to pay for them, but overpay when we see a reason.

There's a bit more but for that you'll have to get the magazine. :)

I realize I haven't gone back to the Melba Toast system in quite awhile...it hasn't been forgotten...just been extremely busy. But there is good news...I have made some progress in capturing the dry toast pattern. At first I thought I'd have to use a bit of trig to capture the exact pattern...but from the initial tests it looks like a max/min range divided by ATR might do the trick. Hopefully, I'll get a chance to test this piece out soon and share the results with ya'll.

Until then...

MT

Quote of the Week & Robert Pardo Interview

"Being a scientist can sometimes be depressing. Surrounded by younger versions of yourself, you are constantly confronted by the mismatch between the dreams of youth and the facts of maturity." -- Emanuel Derman, author of My Life as a Quant

One of my favorite quotes and not only applicable to scientists and programmers...but everyone with several years of experience under their belts...and perhaps a few gray hairs to show for it. Heck, even relates to being a parent. Universal theme...I love it!

On to other things...this weekend I found a great interview with Robert Pardo, the author of Design, Testing, and Optimization of Trading Systems. Read the interview here. Some quick highlights:

When I first started getting into systems, I was persistent, objective, and analytical. I've always been willing to say what it is that I do know, and what it is that I don't know. If somebody said to me "this will work" I'd say, "well, why will it work?" What's the proof?"
Great thinking...I believe many of us could apply this type of thinking to our investing strategies.

And Pardo goes on to describe the great Art of Cherry Picking...
They call this sort of thing cherry picking now. So many people, when they're looking at an idea by hand will say, "oh, it worked here, it worked here, it worked there, and boy, did it work great!" They ignore the fact that it had seven losers before this big win, and three more losers before that big win. They're maybe small, but they do add up. They need to be included in the equation.

In a system, risk is uniform and constant. I re-optimize models periodically because conditions and volatility change. You have to adapt to that to get optimal returns. Generally, though, we're risking the same tomorrow that we are today. Most people not only will vary their risk a great deal, but they'll get very skittish when they actually get a profit.
There's a powerful strategy being expressed here. Something Basso mentioned in his Market Wizards interview.

Overall, a great interview and piques my curiosity as to the other interviews covered in the Market Beaters book. I guess another book to buy and read. :)

Also, don't forget...the new issue of Active Trader Magazine contains an interview of Nassim Taleb. Just bought the mag this weekend. So, I'll share some highlights of the interview sometime this week.

Later Trades,

MT

TGIF

Some great quotes from acrary over on the EliteTrader Forum.

"Trading cannot be taught...it has to be caught. By that I mean you must have a perceptive nature. Without it, buy a system and execute it mechanically."

"I've had experience with this problem (self-sabotage). In short, I found if I had a goal that my self-concious believed was not doable, then I'd self-sabotage my trading. Once I realized this and changed my goals, the self-sabotage stopped."

"If you want to remain emotionless during trading, concentrate on the process and let the outcome happen."
** my favorite one **

Now, for some silly Friday quotes...

"Giant oaks do grow from little acorns. But first you must have an acorn."

"Behind every successful man stands a surprised mother-in-law." -- Hubert Humphrey

"Always program as if the person who will be maintaining your program is a violent psychopath that knows where you live." -- Martin Golding

"As soon as we started programming, we found to our surprise that it wasn't as easy to get programs right as we had thought. Debugging had to be discovered. I can remember the exact instant when I realized that a large part of my life from then on was going to be spent in finding mistakes in my own programs." -- Maurice Wilkes

And finally, the always funny Jack Handy...

He was a cowboy, mister, and he loved the land. He loved it so much he made a woman out of dirt and married her. But when he kissed her, she disintegrated. Later, at the funeral, when the preacher said, "Dust to dust," some people laughed, and the cowboy shot them. At his hanging, he told the others, "I'll be waiting for you in heaven--with a gun."

Enjoy your weekend!

MT

Does Trend Following Work on Stocks?

Check out this paper written by Eric Crittenden and Cole Wilcox of Blackstar Funds: Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? There's a lot of great information embedded in this paper. And for equity system traders...much to learn. In fact, so much to learn, that I've exchanged a few emails with one of the coauthors, Eric Crittenden. Before I begin...let it be said that Eric is a very sharp guy and truly understands the system trading world.

One of the great things I found in this paper was finally someone addressed survivorship bias in their system tests. And more importantly discussed the impact of dividend-adjustments. The really surprising point, especially after talking with Eric, was that survivorship-bias doesn't play as much of a role as I thought in backtesting long-term stock trading systems and dividend-adjusted data or lack thereof plays a much larger role than I expected. So much of a role that my first goal after reading the paper and talking with Eric is to obtain dividend-adjusted equities data.

Another dividend, if you will, of dividend-adjusted data is that your system signal's can be applied to a different time series despite the underlying stocks remaining the same. In other words, you may get more trades if you run your system against two sets of data...1) Non dividend-adjusted and 2) Dividend Adjusted. Some stocks that previously looked stale or non-trending may indeed show up in a long-term trending system with dividends factored in.

Re-entry of positions is another very interesting part of this paper. In my current systems I do not have re-entry criteria. If my trailing exit is hit...I'm out of that stock for good...or until my system model captures it again. In the paper you will see stock charts with stocks hitting the ATR trailing stop and then re-entered. This also has made me look to my own systems and possibly adding some type of re-entry logic.

And finally, for those still yearning for more Trailing Stop ideas...the paper provides plenty of discussion on the Average True Range trailing stop technique. Eric has even offered an alternative solution to the ATR trailing exit problem from my Innovating Exits post. His solution involves using the variance of the Average True Range in your trailing stop. I'll discuss more on this in another post.

Finally, I'd like to express my thanks to Eric for kindly responding to my questions and graciously sharing his thoughts and views on system trading. Maybe I can get an interview out of him to share on the site some day.

Until then...

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." -- Bertrand Russell

MT

Quote of the Week

"Any time you sincerely want to make a change, the first thing you must do is to raise your standards. When people ask me what really changed my life eight years ago, I tell them that absolutely the most important thing was changing what I demanded of myself. I wrote down all the things I would no longer accept in my life, all the things I would no longer tolerate, and all the things that I aspired to becoming." -- Anthony Robbins

MT

CXOAG System Linkfest!

Did a little digging on CXOAG's blog and found some interesting studies they've performed on the market. Enjoy!

Collective2: A Marketplace of Trading Systems
Culls through the number of systems in Collective2's site and breakdowns the performance of swing trading versus daytrading. Most interesting part? Only 24% of Collective2's systems average 1% or more per week yet all systems exceed winning percentages of 50%.

Update: Cramer Offers You His Protection?
Asks and answers the question, Does Cramer have an edge? Insights shared: There may be some edge in buying the Cramers sells during the immediate negative returns and holding longer than 6 months. And it seems part of Cramer's edge is issuing buys on a rather large number of stocks. This creates a thin red line where the more stocks issued as buys...take him further away from market beating returns.

End-of-Quarter Effect: Window Undressing?
Is there a tradeable event at the end of quarters? This is something I have tested in the past and my results match their findings...expect market strength after the quarter...not before.

A Slinky (Short-term Reversion) Effect?
A study is performed on the cane walkers of Wall Street. After reading this post...I thought why judge the decline absolutely? Judge against volatility instead?

An Out-of-Sample Test
Discusses James O'Shaughnessy's strategies now used by Hennessy Funds. Interesting the Growth strategy beat Value in out-of-sample testing.

Later Trades,

MT

Over My Head...

The article titled, The Use of Hurst and Effective Return in Investing by Andrew Clark, contains much that is over my head. But, that shouldn't dissuade me or you from diving in and learning what we can. Heck, any article that contains the following statement is definitely worth my time...

Ideally, a good performance measure should show high performance when the return on capital is high, when the equity/return curve increases linearly over time, and when loss periods (if any) are not clustered.

In the sentence above, Andrew Clark describes just exactly what all of us are looking for in designing, testing, and evaluating our trading systems.

Sorry for the lack of updates on the Melba Toast System. I've been very busy with other projects. But, haven't stopped dreaming up ways to capture the congestion. Here are just a few ideas that I will test as soon as I get the time:

• What if you count the number of weeks a stock closes above its mean and number of weeks closed below its mean? If the ratio of above to below is close to 1 then does that suggest a congestion range-bound area in the time series?



• Should we look for these congestion areas within a certain percentage from their all-time high? Or all-time low? Or both? Or maybe all-time high is too limited and we just need to look for a certain percentage from their 5-year high and low.



• Could using a stock's beta help identify congestion areas? Does the congestion area exhibit less beta than the market? Speaking of beta...has anyone ever attempted to create an indicator out of beta? Basically, the number of stocks with a beta above 1? If so, please share.

Well, that's it from here...where I'm looking forward to seeing Ricky Bobby on the big screen! Ha ha!

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"I'm not smart, but I like to observe. Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why." -- Bernard M. Baruch

Observation is important but the true key is the ability to open your mind to new possibilities. Without an open mind...you cannot see all that's possible.

Have a great week!

MT

Melba Toast Examples

This page will showcase all stocks that I find exhibiting the Essence of Melba Toast. The more examples I can find of Melba Toast...the better chance I have of identifying the logical conditions present in the pattern. So, this page will evolve as new charts are added.







MT

Quote of the Week

"No question is so difficult to answer as that to which the answer is obvious." -- George Bernard Shaw

Have a great week!

MT

Tom Basso Interview

I haven't fallen off the face of the earth. But, have been extremely busy at my day job. I'm also busy testing various ways to capture the sideways congestion in Melba Toast. The initial rules work to some extent...but after further tests...still don't capture the exact model I'm looking for.

So, I've decided I've got to go old school and start collecting charts of all the sideways congestion examples I'm looking for. I'm going to create a page on the blog and store the charts there. That way I can spend more time checking out the specifics of the moves. And hopefully find a way to logically explain the pattern I'm looking for. I'll post a link to this page in the next few days.

Until then, check out this great little interview of Tom Basso. Read the pdf here. Basso is one of my favorite fund managers in the Market Wizards book series. And in this interview Basso shares some gems.

Back-testing can be useful, but I recommend you go one more step. Print out the gory details.

I look for an indication that a trend either exists or doesn't. I like to look for those markets that aren't currently trending, the ones nobody cares about. Those are the markets that are likely to make a move one way or another.

If you mismatch what you're trying to do to who you are and what skills and resources you have, you're always going to be fighting it and never be in sync with it. If, on the other hand, you match your trading system to yourself, then trading can become as easy as breathing.

And don't miss Basso's famous money management test on a random selection of trades. Profits to losses were setup as a two-to-one ratio and the buys and sells were fed back randomly. The tests showed professionals focused on risk while amateurs focused on gain. Something to think about.

MT

Quote of the Week - Cowboy Up!

"If you're ridin' ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it's still there with ya."

We are so busy blazing our own path through the markets. We often forget what really matters...equity performance. Our job is to wrastle that equity to higher ground. All the talk, debate, yip-yap, and how often you're right isn't worth the bucket it sits on...if your equity isn't still there with ya!

Later Trades,

MT

Melba Toast - First Test

If you've read my first post on the system idea of Melba Toast...then you're probably wondering just how that simple little idea performed in market history. Now, remember...all we did was apply a few simple filters. We haven't gotten our hands dirty yet. That happens when we start focusing on patterns. And thanks to Damian for his pattern idea submission...which we'll be sure to use when we get to that point.

Now, when I get a rough set of filters built...I'll usually start looking for stocks that I want to pick up in the system. I do in this in two ways. The first is by using stocks that I've experienced the idea I'm trying to develop with. And I shared those with you in the first post. The second thing I do is run a quick backtest on a small subsection of the market to see what other stocks it's selecting. And to get a rough idea as to how on the mark the filters I'm using work.

Typically, I'll use the Nasdaq 100 to test with in the very beginning. Yes, I know...the Nasdaq 100 is a current snapshot of the Nasdaq 100. And it is the cream of the crop of stocks in the Nasdaq Exchange. So, if I'm looking for big gainers in the past...well the current Nasdaq 100 has them (and only them). In other words...the dice are loaded. But, regardless of these loaded dice I'm rolling with...using these stocks help initially in the test...let's me know just what the filters are picking up. And helps me find more examples to use in my development.

So, here are the results of the first test on the Nasdaq 100:

Win Ratio: 69.23%

Avg Profit: 180.34%
Max Consecutive Winners: 8

Avg Loss: -30.68%
Max Consecutive Losers: 2
Max Drawdown: -8.12%

Profit Factor: 12.54

Actually, not bad considering it's a first run. The profit factor of 12.54 is really nice considering I typically receive profit factors on first runs in the 5 to 8 range...if the idea has merit. Maybe we're on to something? :)

Here's some example trades from the backtest:







As you can see...some potential...but for the most part we're catching the stock a little too early in the process. I'm also worried that we might be filtering down too much. So, for the next test we might open the filters, especially the average price - the max closing low piece. Maybe less than 1 ATR is a bit too tight. We'll see. Until then...

Later Trades,

MT

Developing Melba Toast

I usually keep system ideas and designs to myself. I let my readers in on the mechanics of system trading such as money management, position sizing, etc. But, the actual generation and creation of a system has always been personal. And to be honest...never wanted to give away an edge.

I guess, times are a changing. I've decided to develop and test a system idea in real-time here on the blog. My point isn't to build a system for you, the reader. The point is to share my process...how I capture an idea logically. And more importantly how to continually develop and test until a) the idea's acceptance into the trading library or b) the idea's admittance into Heavenly Hills System Cemetery.

So, what's the idea?

Ever sell a stock out of boredom? When you bought the stock...it looked great. But, after months of underperformance...no better yet...after months of the stock doing nada...you sell. The good news is you didn't really lose money on the investment. But, didn't make any either.

A few weeks or months after closing out your position...the stock breaks to a higher level. Not by a whole lot...still higher than you've ever seen while holding the melba toast. Since the price isn't that much higher than your selling price...you ignore it.

Weeks...months...maybe years go by. Then, like the curiosities of an old flame, the mind wonders...what ever happened to that stock I held back in the day? Pulling up the quote in Yahoo Finance hits you like a Mac truck. That melba toast gained more than 10 times the price you sold it for. Oh, if only I had held it. If only I could stand a little fiber in my diet.

How many of these stocks have you encountered in your trading life? I've experienced plenty. Here are some examples.









About 90% of my equity is allocated to my systems. Around 10% is left as fun money. I can buy stocks for any reason and hold for as long or short as I like with this fun money. The examples above are trades made with this fun money. As you can tell...the trades were horrible. But, this fun money does two very important things for me.

1. Allows me to release the self-destructive side of my trading where I can participate a bit with the market masses without destroying my bottom-line.



2. By participating in the euphoric buying and panic selling sprees I feel all the things the masses feel. I know what it's like to put 100% of my fun money into one position and get hit like The Equities Research Center's FCL trade. To experience those feelings enable me to observe the patterns and more importantly generate system trading ideas.

And with that we get to the main point. How do we logically capture the stocks that go from nothing to something? The Melba Toasts of the world?

My initial thoughts are to identify areas in the time series where buyers are not rewarded. Basically, no new highs are made within a certain time period...let's say one year or 50 weeks.

What about the downside? I think it's okay for the market to make new lows...but not too much on the downside. So, maybe we can check the max closing low for the past year and compare against the average. How many ATR's is the lowest closing price from the 50 week average? Less than 1 ATR sounds about right.

What else? Hmmm...trend. Yes, we need to check the trend of the stock. We basically need a stock that is not trending upwards. So, trending downwards to a degree...or better yet...no trend at all will provide the maximum frustration for holders of the stock while still keeping them in it.

Let's also add a minimum volume filter of at least a 50 week average daily volume greater than 20,000 shares.

So, what do we have?

• No new highs within the past 50 weeks;


• (50 week average close - 50 week lowest closing price) less than 50 week Average True Range (ATR);


• No uptrend in place;


• At least 20,000 shares traded daily for the past 50 weeks.


• We'll slap a 2 * ATR disaster stop and a 3 * ATR trailing stop from the closing price.

Results? Here's what we've captured on the LGF chart with these rules in place:




Looks good, huh? Well, believe it or not...we've got one heck of a long way to go. LGF is just one stock. Now, the real work begins. And I'll have to leave that for another night. Until then...

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week - Winners

"Winners compare their achievements with their goals, while losers compare their achievements with those of other people." -- Nido Qubein

Gotta admit, I'm guilty of this losing trait...comparing against others. And it's one I'm determined to work on for 2006. But, first...gotta make some goals. :)

Later Trades,

MT

Quote of the Week

"All progress is precarious, and the solution of one problem brings us face to face with another problem." -- Martin Luther King Jr.

Great quote isn't it? And very true.

Sidenote:
Looking for more information on money management/position sizing? There's a nice little thread from EliteTrader discussing the topic. Read here.

Finally, investors tend to believe sentiment is too optimistic if a top magazine's cover is bullish. Do we give equal attention to bearish magazine covers and their potential implications? It looks like we have a new test case: the current cover of The Economist. And it seems most people are missing the contrarian indications.

Have a great week everyone!

MT